Santa Claus doesn’t even count for small talk nowadays… is how I’d like to begin this segment. Unfortunately, I am almost sure that there will be copyright issues on the horizon if I did that so I’ll stop it there. I don’t plan on doing anything too heavy for this particular entry. Nor do I intend for this entry to have a point. I am just lamenting the fact that I have yet to buy Christmas gifts as life has been slightly busy lately. Somehow, the Christmas holiday atmosphere has made my days all the more hectic. As the title can possibly allow one to gather, I plan on ranting a bit about the retail sector today.

The fall of Lehman Brothers was so magnificent that it made me question whether I shall ever open a business with a sibling. What I want to say is, there are many factors and risks that are out of your control. One moment, the market is good, the next, your balance blows up in a fashion reminiscent of the 4th of July. It has always been my thoughts that the Australian retail sector is undergoing something similar. People are so desperate for profits that I feel that they are pushing sales for the sake of sales. It reminds of me an old retail joke that I heard while I was selling mattresses.

Sales A: “We’re making a loss on each unit we sell, what do we do?”

Sales Manager: “Don’t worry, we’ll make up for it with volume.”

The only thing I see saving this year’s Christmas figures is Star Wars. Hopefully, the ticket sales will be enough to create a positive effect and get people not only going out to watch the movies but also out shopping while they’re at it (and if you consider the drinks and popcorn sold, that’s just a bonus!).

Looking at the department stores, Westfields and Chases has never been so quiet so close to Christmas. I recall a few summers ago (I live in Australia) when I could barely move about while shopping. The perfume section at David Jones and Myers are full of eager sales people who are more than willing to spray and puff the latest scents and sell things while giving up gift bags, vouchers, future discounts, free samples, a foot massage, a tractor, a flamethrower etc. Along with the traditional Boxing Day sale where everybody everywhere simultaneously teleports to their nearest shopping center credit card in hand, it makes the pre Christmas season anything but festive.

I personally believe that there is a move away from giving Christmas presents on Christmas Day. As mentioned earlier, a fat man dressed in red who works very specific hours is too hard to believe even before you see your kindergarten teacher kissing him. So we intuitively understand that the presents are store bought and not made by elves captured and put to slave labor (unless by elves are what you call the Chinese). Delaying the purchases a bit can yield serious savings. If it’s possible to short the market value of goods, shorting between the 24th and the 27th would definitely yield profits higher than students at a college party. And they get pretty high.

This is it for now. I’ll probably have something for new years so look forward to that.

Merry Christmas,

The Uninformed Trader