Dear uninformed readers,

I must say, I have been extremely lazy as I did not update anything once March came around. But that’s because I was busy with life and stuff. Just, very general stuff. Work is good, life is decent, and money is as always somewhat lacking. I could certainly do with more money, especially in these turbulent times.

Once again, before I proceed onto this year’s calls, let’s do a quick summary of 2021. Holy shit was I wrong for Bitcoin and gold… I wasn’t even close (Bitcoin had a high just shy of $70,000, and gold was just under $1920)! Which is quite embarrassing. I did hit the mark for SP500 hitting 4200 (blew past it!) and the Australian housing sectoring increasing 10% (nailed it!).

So onto the mains. 2022… which is essentially a sequel to 2020, considering it’s…. well, you know what, the joke is there so if you get it then you get it, otherwise whatever. Unlike the QE bandwagon, I think we’re gonna see a stagnant market this year. I REALLY don’t want to make any calls seeing that there’s no real indicator for the economy under these uncertain times. But alas, it’s the only time I ever make any contributions to this site (pretty much) so I guess I’ll just go with some gut instincts. QE is slowing down and we begin to see trends of interest rate increases across the world. Money will certainly be more frugal and investments will be focused within assets that are tangible or can generate stable cashflow. Basically, I feel that covid has decreased our tolerance for risk IF money stops being pumped into the system by the government. Things are gonna be bumpy for cryptos and USD denominated assets in general. Holding the dollar would probably be a good idea at least for the first half of the year. I’m gonna anticipate a sharp increase in the treasuries of around 10%.

I think it’s more about taking advantage of any over or underreactions from the market (mainly overreactions). The second half of the year is where things will get interesting. I’m hoping that covid will truly die down by then and hopefully we’ll all see some normality return to our world. The shift in workplace dynamics and ability to integrate technology for a large portion of the workforce will surely see a decrease in demand for offices or apartments in concentrated CBD areas as population flocks outwards towards the suburbs. Housing will be first in line to be affected. I’m expecting a slower increase in housing prices in the city, and a large shift of over 20% increase in the outer suburbs (40km+ from main CBD). Of course, I’m talking about the Australian market. But I guess similar rules can be applied to the US and EU.

As for cryptos, I’m not expecting anything too amazing. I think the craze has gone on for a while now so this year I’m expecting a large swing, but basically no move. After the failed prediction from last year, I’m gonna give this one more shot. I’m predicting a near ~0% move for BTC and ETH towards December relative to current prices. However, I do expect the journey to be a bumpy one. So HODL or not, keep your leverages low and don’t go in over your head.

I’ll be updating this blog maybe for the first few months of the year… just being realistic here. I’m hoping that I can keep on going and keep at it but I’m REALLY lazy… so there. The above are my predictions (10% treasuries, 20% outer suburb housing, flat crypto). I’m expecting to trade a bit of equities for long term investments this year so I won’t go into equities.

Best regards,

The uninformed trader