Ok, I know it’s almost been a month but better late than never right? Plus, I’m going by the Chinese New Year so all good… Anyways, 2020 was a pretty good year for me so I hope that this year will also treat me kindly. Comparatively, 2021 actually sucks a big one thus far and I hope that my luck will turn eventually.
Put on some muscles and keep up my workout routines. I’ve been working out for almost two years now and I’ve always been focusing on losing weight. However, I do need to gain some muscles to help me maintain my physique, especially when all I’ve been doing is stress eating lately.
Learn C++. Holy shit is this an important one. It’s mainly for work, though it will benefit my other projects greatly. Also, since I enjoy my work so much, I figured that this should definitely be there.
Start some side ventures. I’m still young (state of mind) and I want to start doing some more things that I enjoy. Don’t get me wrong, I love my job and career. It’s just that things like teaching at uni are also things that I happen to miss a lot (I stopped during the pandemic). So I guess I’ll be starting some random stuff and trying out different business ideas just to keep busy since I don’t have a thesis weighing down on my time anymore.
That’s it for this year. 3 simple, very clearly laid out goals. I think they’re all achievable.
As some may have realised, friends and family aren’t on my list this year. That’s because I think I’ve been doing a pretty good job keeping in touch through the covid period and I’m happy just maintaining status quo.
I hope that all of you stay safe and will be happy every day in 2021 (year of the bull).
During January 2020, I went to Sierra Leone for what can only be described as the best fucking travel experience in my life. I had lots of fun with my friends and met with the local government officials (some side stuff). I tried Casava leaves (tasted a little like curry) stew among other local cuisines. I went to a night club in Freetown and somehow ended up in their VIP ‘room’ drinking and partying with random people. I spent a few days with my friends living with the locals before I gave up and went to a hotel myself to enjoy things I’ve been taking for granted all these years in a developed nation. Things such as a working shower, air conditioning, and just having electricity to charge my devices in general (and wifi… holy shit the internet was bad over there). Overall, I had a blast.
Outside of all these fun, I also had a chance to dive into the real lives of the everyday people living there. What struck me the most was how energy poor they were over there. Freetown, the capital city of Sierra Leone, constantly had blackouts due to energy shortage. They even have a boat near the shore that generates power via a diesel generator to make up for the gap. Ok, I know I say boat, but it’s actually a ship and it serves its current purpose quite well.
Now, looking at the neighbors of Sierra Leone, they do not have any energy crisis. In fact, they have surplus energy. This brings me back to the original point of water. Water is not distributed evenly across Africa. Countries with fast flowing rivers running through them enjoys the benefits of hydroelectricity. This is a privilege not every country can enjoy. Furthermore, water is required for industrial production, which will further increase the growth gaps between nations.
“What about solar power?” you ask.
Ahh… as usual, the uninformed yet keen readers of mine asks the right questions. The issue with solar power isn’t so much that it is difficult to build. It is the fact that it cannot generate energy stable enough throughout the year. Taking Sierra Leone once again as an example, they experience around 2 months of non-stop rain every year. This brings us to a weakness of solar energy. Clouds. Or to be more general, anything that will prevent sunlight from hitting the solar cells. This makes the geography of any sites very scarce. Areas with heavy foliage will be impossible. Can’t have a steep gradient, or a gentle gradient, or a gradient… And it also can’t be very far from the energy grid, if that location has a grid at all. Otherwise, a mini-grid connection or off-grid system needs to be implemented before the energy produced can be used by the households.
I’m rambling a bit off topic now so I’ll bring it back to water. So the lack of water means no cheap energy, and more expensive costs when it comes to industrial production. This puts them behinds economically when trying to develop and pull their people out of poverty.
So once again, it seems that investing in water doesn’t necessarily need to actually be investing in water to reap the benefits…. just some food for thought, that’s all. I’ve been a bit tired lately so this is gonna be a short one.
I’m back! After a long hiatus that’s caused by study and being lazy in general, I am back to being able to focus on what I enjoy best, Netflix and chill. And also studying the random, dark, untouched areas of the market. Anyways, this new bold call update will signify my return and hopefully (New Year Resolution time) I will be able to update regularly this year (aiming for weekly but will be happy if my update frequencies can average fortnightly).
So before I start, I’ll have a quick summary of the results. My previous bold calls pretty much all came true. Property prices peaked in 2017 in Australia and equities did great (11.46% returns for the ASX 200). China smashed my expectations and increased 21.78% and closed 4030.85. Basically, I’m a lot less rich than what I should be considering how good I am and how right I was… *sigh*
So on a new note, let’s talk 2021. I start by focusing on a few fields this year. China will certainly cause geopolitical chaos with the US this year as RCEP kicks in. The deals they’re making with the EU won’t help either. As geopolitical tension rises, so does Gold and Bitcoin. The relentless QE programs and record low interest rates (that doesn’t look like it’s going anywhere higher anytime soon) will essentially devalue any currency. The thing with trade is that if you lower your currency and gain a competitive edge, it really fucks up the balance. So the current trend is, everybody print money, and we all deflate together, and we all die slowly… together.
First bold call, Bitcoin is going to $100,000 baby!!!! HODL!!!
Second bold call, Gold will hit $2,500.
Last bold call, the S&P500 will hit the 4200 mark.
Now to explain myself. Once again, I’ve pretty much put all my eggs in one basket (the QE basket). The amazing, fabulous, miraculous effect of printing money based on credit is that you can keep doing it. As long as you have more credit. And right now, the US has CREDIT! With Trump out (and I’ll explain what happens should he refuse to leave power later) and Biden in, we can expect more money pouring into the market to make sure the economy doesn’t shit itself (see image below).
This is exactly how the Feds work. True story.
What happens is that this money will end up in the hands of corporations. Even if it’s handed out straight to the public, they will need to spend it somewhere, let’s say paying for their mortgage or buying consumer staples, the corporations are where the money will end up at. The remaining money, will push themselves into whatever looks half decent to invest and drive up their prices as investors, both uninformed and informed rush in because let’s face it, it’s free money! As long as credit holds up, this is inevitable. As money rush in, the corporations make money, the stock markets go up. And because there’s so much money in the markets, given the ratio between the inflow and the size of the economy, money is suddenly worth a lot less (not necessarily inflation, because everyday items may not increase that much in price, just the investment products including real estate).
Oh, that reminds me. Fourth call, real estate is back! I’m thinking 10% in the Australian markets.
Anyways, continuing on with my rambles, as money is worth less relative to these investment products, people rush in natural to attempt to beat the basic devaluing of the currency. Bitcoin prediction is because everyone is crazy! And crazy means it will shoot to the moon. And that’s pretty much it… 2021 will be fairly uneventful (when viewed in this angle).
Ooh, almost forgot, if Trump doesn’t want to leave power, scrap the S&P prediction. Gold and Bitcoin should still go up because duh!
Anyways, after a shitty 2020, I hope you all can have a good 2021. My best regards to you and may you be happy everyday.
Uninformed Trader 