Month: January 2017

Bold Calls: Jan 2017

On By Chen Yu YanIn Equity, Fundamental Analysis, Futures, Policy, Retail, Sector, Technical Analysis, TradingLeave a comment

Dear Uninformed Readers,

Wow… what a year. I made two calls last year and both were pretty good. I admit that gold came a bit short but come on, what’s $20 between friends (I don’t actually have friends, that’s why I blog). So to sum up, gold was slightly underwhelming stopping just pass $1380/oz whereas bitcoin did exactly what I anticipated and flew right through the big $1000 mark (I know it collapsed based on selling pressure from mainland China but hey, I never said it wouldn’t come back down).

I am once again aiming to do some decent analysis this year as well so here we go.

For 2016, I called on currencies. This year I’m calling on equity. Actually, equity markets to be precise. Because I live in Australia, I am going to start with the ASX S&P200 index. It is currently trading around 5650 as I write (it’s a Friday and markets closed around 4 hours ago so yeah… it’s 5654.80 to be precise). I am looking out for the big 6000 mark. That’s where it all went wrong early 2015 and I think we’re gonna go tempt fate again by trying to smash that ceiling. My reason is fairly simple. With tightened controls around foreign investment (property in particular), property prices are going to stall. Those seeking returns will be driven to the equity market (I know there are those seeking yield but come on, who seeks yield phft…). The money will flow into the equity space which hopefully drives the market past that 6000 mark.

And because I like the Shanghai market, I’m gonna go with the Shanghai composite on the next prediction. Shanghai stalled at 3123.14 and I honestly don’t see it moving much this year. However, I just have a good feeling about the technical patterns. On the fundamental side, we have a similar situation as in Australia. P2P lending has gone way too big in China to yield anything generous these days. Real estate is a big joke in all the major cities as things are simply getting too expensive for people to invest. Hence I anticipate a near 20% increase to the 3500-3600 level. This also happens to be a resistance level (technically) from 2015 so my eggs are certainly all in one basket this year.

To sum up for 2017, equity UP! Property not so much (in Australia and China at least).

Yours sincerely,

The Uninformed Trader

2017 resolutions

On By Chen Yu YanIn UncategorizedLeave a comment

Often, you delay projects that you really want to do. For me, I delayed and dragged my feet in 2016. Before I get to the main stuff, 2016 was a shit year. I have come to realise that I have never come across a year so terrible in my life. To be specific, I have never come across a year where I felt so terrible throughout in my life. I am not referring to anything political in nature like the upset victory of Brexit or the Trump presidency. I am merely making an observation about my own life. But my life isn’t interesting, it’s actually quite the opposite of interesting. Also, this site isn’t a blog about my life (entirely) so I won’t bore you with what I’ve been up to. However, I will go on about what I intend to do for 2017, which I feel is my year. Mainly because it’s a prime number and I like primes.

So here goes… my 2017 resolutions:

  1. Finish 2 papers: I know that my PhD won’t be easy so I want to get a good head start. Hopefully this will push me to get off my lazy ass and do something.
  2. Update this site more often: A lot more often than last year at least. I’m thinking on a weekly/bi-weekly level at the very least.
  3. Pick up some more work at my firm: I feel that as one of the directors, I am not doing much, mainly using my PhD as an excuse to skip meetings etc. I wish to stop doing that in 2017 as I see a lot of opportunities on the horizon.
  4. Spend my time more with people I like: I spent too much of 2016 being miserable with people I don’t like. I intend to turn that around. This may involve flying around the world to meet up with all those I’ve been losing connection with over time but I feel that it’s something that I need to do.
  5. A bit cliche but I would like to eat healthier: Let’s face it, nobody is getting younger and despite being in my mid 20’s, I would like to maintain my status in the “not fat” group. I’m fairly happy here.

Finally, I wish you all a happy new year. May 2017 be filled with good times and fond memories.